By Ferdinand Shinyi,
In 2011, President Barack Obama’s Chief Strategist, David Axelrod, was featured on CNN’s State of the Union, and towards the end of the interview, the host, Candy Crowley, displayed Obama’s poll numbers, which were quite dismal, and asked Axelrod what he taught of the President’s re-election prospects.
Axelrod responded by saying that it was too early to judge Obama’s chances as they still had a year to election day. He said issues were yet to be properly joined and that Obama had not yet begun to MAKE THE CASE for his re-election. The rest is history.
Obama wiped out Mitt Romney to win a second term.
It’s not like Obama’s presidency had been a failure as at 2011. He had cleaned the economic mess left behind by George Bush and given the nation a comprehensive healthcare Law (Affordable Care Act, otherwise called Obamacare) in addition to other notable accomplishments at home and abroad. The problem lay in the fact that Obamacare stirred a massive revolt among Republicans and Independents who feared a government take-over of healthcare. Fiscal conservatives especially (as distinct from SOCIAL conservatives who care more about issues like abortion, immigration etc) were the most offended; they argued that ACA was going to kill businesses and blow the national debt out of proportion. The revolt birthed the TEA PARTY movement which propelled Republicans to a resounding victory in the midterm election of 2010. Democrats lost over 60 seats in that election prompting Obama to describe it as a SHELLACKING.
There are some folks who think Governor Alia is going to be defeated in the 2027 election. They say that the political class across party lines is going to coalesce around a candidate to take out Alia.
Like Axelrod, I would say to those folks that it’s too early to be so cocksure. Time has not come for Alia to properly join issues with his co-contestants and make the case for his re-election.
One thing we must realize is that, Alia still pulls at the heartstrings of millions of Benue men and women irrespective of what has happened from 2023 to now. That natural love they have for him predates his governorship and shows no sign of waning. You only need to see how the people respond to him at any social gathering.
Additionally, he has posted a decent governance record so far that stands in stark contradistinction with what was on offer years before and which is going to be the main propellant of his re-election bid. When the governor begins to make the case for his re-election, there is a lot on his plate that he is going to use to contrast his regime with that of his immediate predecessor.
For many voters, decision time is still far-off. The time for making minds up will come when Alia’s main rival emerges and the comparisons begin. Alia is an excellent communicator (especially in Tiv). He knows how to move a crowd. When the campaign season kicks off and voters stand to listen to him, many who don’t support him now will be won over. The civil servants and pensioners will say to themselves: ‘you know what?, I have not seen everything I wanted to see, but there is no way I am giving up the salary payment stability I enjoy now for a pie in the sky’.
Alia has already laid a solid foundation for his re-election by STARTING WELL. The picture would be complicated today had he not started so well.
For now, let’s focus on contributing our all to the development of the state.
